Obama, Irak en de tijd die dringt

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Aanslagen in Karachi en Brussel. De spectaculaire opmars van ISIS in Irak. Al-Qaida is niet verslagen. Als de slag om Bagdad (vandaag?) begint is een volledige burgeroorlog in Irak een feit. Washington zit in een uiterst moeilijke situatie. De aanname dat Al Qaida in het Midden Oosten en omgeving is gedecimeerd en Irak relatief veilig is, is achterhaald. Bagdad en de zuidelijke olieprovincies zijn nog ‘veilig’ maar duidelijk is dat premier al-Maliki de greep op zijn land in snel tempo verliest. Washington zal druk op hem uitoefenen gematigde soennieten in zijn regering op te nemen wat tot nu toe niet is gebeurd. Liever nog willen velen in Washington een nieuwe, gematigde sjiietische premier die een nationale regering formeert. De grote vraag is natuurlijk of Maliki wil ‘bewegen’. Hij heeft om drones gevraagd en verdere Amerikaanse support. De VS traint op dit moment al Iraakse veiligheidstroepen in Jordanie. maar wil pas eventueel extra militaire steun geven als er een nieuwe politieke realiteit in Irak ontstaat. Er staat veel op het spel. ISIS is zeer goed georganiseerd. Strijders vechten per land in groepen.  Er zijn zo’n 2000 EU strijders actief. (Bron Europol) De Wall Street Journal verwijst naar een studie dat 1 op de 9 goed getrainde strijders bij thuiskomst zich bezig houden met aanslagen in eigen regio voor te bereiden. ‘Brussel’ zou daar al een voorbeeld van zijn. Na meer dan 100.000 gedode Irakezen en bijna 5000 gedode Amerikanen verschijnen in de Amerikaanse pers al de eerste ingezonden brieven: ‘Zijn onze familieleden en vrienden hiervoor gestorven?’ Met ‘hiervoor’ zal ook bedoeld worden dat het scenario zich kan aftekenen van een door een sunnitische ISIS beheerst en aaneengesloten gebied in Irak en Syrie dat strijdt tegen sjiitisch Iran. Dat maakt de hele regio uiterst onveilig met alle humanitaire en veiligheidsgevolgen die je je daar bij kunt voorstellen. Dat is geen geisoleerde crisis maar juist een crisis waar als vanzelf de hele wereld bij betrokken is. Dus een wereldcrisis.

Posted in Laatste nieuws.

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